With global trade conditions growing increasingly unpredictable, the logistics landscape is once again being reshaped by shifting tariffs, changing demand patterns, and rapid adjustments from ocean carriers. While the long-term outlook remains uncertain, the short-term consequences are already evident—particularly in the trans-Pacific and transatlantic trades.
Artificial Peak Season and Carrier Adjustments
Following the postponement of mutual tariff hikes until July 9, the U.S. has maintained a 10% base tariff while raising duties on selected Chinese goods to as high as 145%. As a result, shippers in countries such as Taiwan, Vietnam, and Malaysia are accelerating exports to stay ahead of potential increases—effectively creating an earlier-than-usual peak season on the Trans-Pacific Eastbound trade lane.
Carriers are responding with blank sailings and selective port omissions, primarily on Chinese routes, while increasing service at alternative Asian origins. Capacity on the trans-Pacific trade is expected to drop by roughly 14%—equivalent to 92,000 TEUs per week—compared to projections just one month ago.
Short-Term Tactics, Long-Term Implications
At present, most service adjustments appear tactical rather than permanent. However, these changes are already influencing global supply chain flows, equipment availability, and service patterns. Fewer vessels returning to China means fewer options for U.S. exporters and greater complexity for smaller niche carriers. Should trade tensions persist beyond the summer, more structural changes to alliance networks may follow.
In the meantime, one emerging challenge is container imbalance. With increased volumes out of alternative Asian origins, some regions are facing equipment shortages—an issue that could soon lead to imbalance surcharges.
LEMAN’s Advice: Stay Agile
In this volatile market environment, LEMAN advises all shippers to remain flexible. While long-term contracts can provide stability, agility is currently more valuable. Leveraging short-term agreements and spot market solutions may provide better outcomes—especially as rates and capacity continue to fluctuate.
We are closely monitoring the situation and remain ready to support your supply chain decisions during this period of uncertainty. If you need help adapting your freight strategy or navigating these changes, please don’t hesitate to reach out.